Good News and Bad News

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll on Social Security is out, and the results are decidedly mixed. First, the bad news:

A strong majority of respondents, 63 percent, do not think Social Security will have enough money to pay the benefits they are entitled to, and 74 percent think the system faces either major problems or is in crisis — as Bush has asserted. The president also has at least general support from 53 percent of the public for the concept of letting people control some of their contributions to invest in the market.

It looks like the members of the reality-based community have work to do. Objectively, Social Security is not in crisis, and we need to push this fact much harder in the media if we're going to move these numbers. Saving the program will prove to be much more difficult if most people think it is already dead.

But there is some good news:

It is on the specifics that Bush faces problems. Support dropped to an even split when people were told that the cost of the transition to a new program could reach $2 trillion over time, as some forecasts project. And 62 percent said they would not participate in such a program if it meant their retirement income would go up or down depending on the performance of their stock picks — which is the essence of Bush's plan.

One thing to note is that the questions don't specifically mention the guaranteed benefit cuts in the traditional program that the privatization plans assume. As they read, one would think that benefit levels under privatization would only vary based on stock market performance, and might possibly be higher than under the current program if the market does well. But that's just not the case. If these benefit cuts were noted more clearly, support for privatization would be even lower.

The trend data is also somewhat encouraging, since the numbers on the health of the system and the support for privatization have been moving in the right direction for a while now. Of course, the big media campaign from Bush & Co. hasn't begun in earnest yet, which will no doubt have an effect. Again, we have work to do.