Bring It On

For the last week or so, there's been some speculation in the lefty blogosphere about Bush's real goal in pushing Social Security reform. As support for privatization seemed to collapse on the Hill, attention began to shift away from analyzing the mechanics of Bush's plan to worrying that Rove had duped the Democrats again, feigning to touch the third rail in order to lay the groundwork for something else entirely. Kevin Drum and Greg Saunders, for example, have some interesting ideas about what this "something else" will turn out to be.

Although nobody ever went broke overestimating Karl Rove, I've been reluctant to think that all the White House's talk about Social Security "reform" was just a scam. And while it's likely that a fallback position has already been identified in case the main push falters, today it looks like Social Security really is about Social Security.

Congressional Republicans, after three months of internal debate, this weekend launched a months-long campaign to try to convince constituents that rewriting the Social Security law would be cheaper and less risky than leaving it alone, as the White House opened a campaign to pressure several Senate Democrats to support the changes.

The Republicans left an annual retreat in the Allegheny Mountains with a 104-page playbook titled "Saving Social Security," a deliberate echo of the language President Bill Clinton used to argue that the retirement system's trust fund should be built up in anticipation of the baby boomers' retirement.

I can only imagine what Bush had to promise the Congressional Republicans to get them on board, and now the price of failure for both sides has risen considerably. With Republicans united behind the President, this is a whole different ball game now.

So be it. To Bush and the GOP, I just want to say, "Bring it on." If Democrats hang tough and resist the lure of a false bipartisanship, the Party will likely come away from this fight with an unexpected legislative victory and be stronger and more unified than it's been in a very long time. The Republicans, on the other hand, will come out of this with a very bloody nose and recriminations all around. Of course, the Democrats might fail to stop privatization. But if the GOP isn't given any bipartisan cover, the they will have total ownership of this "reform" forced upon them, and it will cost them electorally down the road as the true costs of privatization are realized.

It all comes down now to a bet on the ability of the Democrats to hold it together. If we do, we win; if we don't, they win. For the last four years, betting against the Democrats was a pretty safe gamble. Let's hope this time will be different.