Reluctant Like a Fox

According to the Washington Post, Senator Frist is none too anxious to have a vote on Bush's Social Security phaseout plan:

"In terms of whether it will be a week, a month, six months or a year, as to when we bring something to the floor, it's just too early," Frist said.

While Frist is described as "reluctant" to put off a vote until possibly next year, I don't think that's the case at all.

First, any victory for Bush is going to come at great political cost to the Republicans. For Bush to get the bill that he wants through Congress, it's going to take a long, painful, and ugly fight — and that's just to get the GOP in line. The Democrats seems to be pulling together even as the GOP splits apart, making the possibility of any bipartisan cover worthy of the name increasingly unlikely. No Senate leader in his right mind would be looking forward to such a hard slog.

Second, Frist isn't just any Senate leader — he's a Senate leader who wants to run for President. It was always a huge risk for him to run on a platform of helping to dismantle the most successful and popular social program in history, but with the polls against him and a hard row to hoe ahead, that risk comes to look increasingly like political suicide. That Frist (and probably many other Republicans) must be a little dismayed and angered by Bush's clumsy handling of the issue doesn't make encourage him to assume that risk on the President's behalf.

Third, though, Frist can't just come out against the President's signature domestic policy initiative; he has to be subtle if he wants to kill it and save himself. He knows as well as anyone that the window for changing Social Security during Bush's second term closes at midnight, December 31. And he's perfectly content to watch that date pass without a vote in the Senate.