For Future Reference

Josh Marshall has published the text of an email he received "from a former career diplomat who served as U.S. ambassador to a Muslim country." This email discusses the current situation on the ground, and puts forward three different scenarios as to how it will all play out. I'm not sure any of these scenarios will come to pass (there would seem to be a lot more than three), but this is definitely something to come back to later in a few weeks or months, just to see.

Iraq and Lebanon

Ethan Bronner points out some of the more disturbing similarities between the current US invasion of Iraq with the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon:

The central aim of the military operation was to smash the looming terrorist threat, but it was also a stab at refashioning the Middle East by installing a pro-Western government. The first troops in the south took Shiite Muslim towns, where locals were relieved to be rid of an oppressive regime. Some cheered the foreign invaders.

That may sound like a description of the current war in Iraq, but the military in question was Israel's, the invaded country was Lebanon and the date was 1982. It would be 18 years before the last weary, despised Israeli soldier left. And while there are never exact historical parallels, Israel's experience in Lebanon — an ambitious invasion that turned into a draining quagmire — is a cautionary tale for the American war in Iraq.

Another interesting data point: Israeli Defense Minister Ariel Sharon used a terrorist act not connected with the PLO in Lebanon to justify the invasion of Lebanon to take out the PLO. Hmmm… sounds familiar.

Cowboy Bush

Lots of folks are fond of calling Bush a "cowboy". The label is meant to reference Bush's preference for going it alone, shooting first and asking questions later. But as Susan Faludi points out in today's New York Times, it's not that Bush is a cowboy, but that Bush killed the cowboy.